The Oscar Posts: Number Two.

Alright, kids. I declined a party invitation tonight under the auspices of getting some worthwhile sleep tonight, but a massive, all-day headache has rendered that plan completely asunder. So, let’s instead delve into the subject which will be occupying the airwaves of radio, television, and wireless internet over this weekend.

Ladies and Gentlemen: let’s talk Oscars.

Now, as I stated in an earlier post (which you may seek out at your leisure), this is one of the most scintillating years we have seen in recent memory. There is no threat of a sweep, as there was in 2003 with the arrival of The Return of the King. The Best Picture category is home to five genuinely interesting and provocative films, as opposed to an attack of whatever the Brothers Weinstein could throw against an insipid faux-epic. Such names as Amy Adams, Paul Giamatti, and Rachel Weisz dominate the acting categories; gone are the days of a yearly Russell Crowe nod or whichever ancient legend happened to make a movie that year. We will not see a travesty such as Lauren Bacall’s nomination for The Mirror Has Two Faces, nor will a lackluster performance like Juliette Binoche’s English Patient turn beat it out. This field is truly deserving, and any one of them could grab the coveted bronzed dude on Sunday.

That said, let’s take a look at a few of the categories and judge which of the nominees has the best chance of being recognized at the ceremony. To wit—

Best Director
So, this year’s crop of nominees has a one-to-one correspondence to the Best Picture films. This matching means that there is no odd-man nominee to shove out of the running immediately. Instead, let’s look at the two men who have a snowball’s chance of winning: Bennett Miller and Paul Haggis. Haggis’ film, Crash, is an ineptly directed tour-de-force, one of those films which seemingly arranged itself in the editing bay and was launched without regard for content or context into the marketplace. Whatever misgivings I may have about the film, I can still tell you that there are some excellent performances, and that the script does reach a few poignant moments. However, these pieces do not make up for the fact that the film has no narrative cohesion, and that the cinematographic style changes from scene to scene. Mr. Haggis made no attempt whatsoever to make his film hang together, and for that he should be immediately stricken from consideration. As for Mr. Miller, the plain and simple truth is that he’s a first-time director whose film has been mostly praised for a single performance. This combination does not bode well for his chances with the wizened Academy, a governing body which prizes experience and grandeur above all else.

Then we can discount Spielberg, because he’s won four Oscars. Not only is he not going to win this year, odds are that he’ll never win again.

We’re left with polar opposites. Ang Lee, twice-nominated auteur who made a humanistic drama to bounce back from one of the biggest tentpole debacles in cinema history, and George Clooney, Hollywood royalty and star of such films as Return of the Killer Tomatoes! and Return to Horror High. Actually, they may not be so different after all. The deciding factor, then, will be the content of their films. As I said before, pomp tends to win over everything, so expect the lush hills and lingering shots of Brokeback Mountain to one-up the taut interiors of Good Night, and Good Luck.